Windows Collapsing?
The web is buzzing with this premise based on a presentation by Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald. Of course we have the accompanying Microsoft bashers vs fanboy flamewars. I don’t consider myself in either camp so here is my take.
I think Silver and MacDonald are on the right track. In my company, the trend is mobility. As a construction company, we have temporary job offices scattered around the country and we are finally able to start connecting them with all the information that was previously available only on our network servers. The balance point between the need for desktop apps vs. web apps is shifting to the web side. Smart phones are becoming important to our business and UMPC’s probably will soon. Where does Vista fit in this scenario?
It isn’t that Microsoft is unaware of what is happening. I think Sharepoint is a pivotal product. it provides access to information via the web to almost any device and it integrates very nicely with Office 2007 for creation/analysis of the information. Server 2008 shows Microsoft can do lean, fast and modular so why is Vista the opposite? The only reason is they have a huge lead in the desktop market and they want to milk the cash cow. I really see Vista as following the dead end paths of Windows 386 and Windows Millenium.
Microsoft needs only to look at Netware to see that a huge majority of installed base will not perpetuate itself If the technology does not keep up with the user’s needs. I remember the NetWare providers laughing at NT 3.5x and saying it could not be a serious contender. Novell seriously underestimated the effect of tight server/client integration and the appeal of similar operating systems for both.
If Microsoft wants to supply a “everything included, already installed by your local Best Buy” operating system for the home, fine. For business desktops, they should have followed the Server 2008 model and provided a modular system that could be used on a variety of devices. Hmmm. That sounds familiar.
From my perspective, Windows is becoming a moot point. I am set with XP Pro on the corporate desktops until at least 2010-11. In the past year Gnu/Linux has made large strides in closing the gaps I need it to. By the time I’m ready to replace desktops again, I expect Gnu/Linux to be a real contender.
